Thursday 3 December 2020

COVID-19, NIGERIA A FAILED STATE? THE PAST, THE PRESENT AND THE FUTURE.




Leadership does not start by having people following you. It does not start when you get a position in life. Leadership starts when

you develop a self governed life. A self governed person take full ownership  of his choices, accept personal responsibility and adopt values and principles to guide their lives.

Nigeria as a country has suffered a lot. Fighting for independence,  experiencing lots of coup, civil war, economic hardship,  poor infrastructure,  poor leadership, poor development, poor human capital development  and poor health system. My focus is more on the poor health system, poor leadership and poor economy of our country. From 1999 to 2020, there is no acceptable reason for government not to have a standard and well equipped hospital in Nigeria. We cannot boast of a single standard hospital in Nigeria. Our leaders fly out of the country for medical treatment leaving the low standard health system for the poor citizens to manage. 

When I was living in Kaduna, I had a first experience where a pregnant woman living within my neighbourhood lost her baby during delivery because there was no light that night and the poor woman had no money to fuel the generator in the hospital. The nurses had to make use of LED rechargeable lantern in the hospital. When I moved down to Warri, I was shocked that in some of the government hospital,  pregnant women going for delivery had to buy fuel in order to power the generator for use during child delivery. Those that do not have the finance, makes use of LED rechagable lantern for delivery. For crying out loud, where is our conscience?  Where is our conscience as human? Before you start controlling  or leading people, you control your conscience, you rule over conscience. You will have to process what is right or wrong as a leader.

People who do not have control over their conscience begin to do things that are really destructive and you will begin to wonder what was the person thinking when he was doing that - in other words, what was in his conscience.  What are in the conscience of our leaders? Our government cannot provide a good health system for us. All they know is to fly around the world for medical treatment. Why can't our government build or provide a standard hospital  in Nigeria? Why does it look impossible but it is really possible? Like Mr Peter Obi said, no government official or leader will say he does not know the poor state of our health sector. They all know but turned their eyes away from their responsibilities- failing to develop a self governed life as leaders who suppose to accept their responsibility.

THE PRESENT

The whole world is facing Corona Virus pandemic also known as Covid-19. The pandemic brought advanced nations with good and standard health systems to their knees,  putting them in a state of tears and confusion. This virus started in Wuhan, Hebei province  of China towards the ending of 2019. It later got to other parts of Asia, to Europe, America, UK and Africa. Finally it came to us here in Nigeria.

Leading people is not just about been promoted over them, it's about been able to provide a productive direction that leads or brings everybody to a prefered or desirable end. That means if I'm your leader, I must be able to bring all of us to a place that is better than where we are now. That is what leadership is all about. Now my question is, did Nigeria government actually observed what was going around the world or were they relaxed partying? Our government had enough time to prepare for this deadly virus. They saw what was happening in Europe and Asia and still remained reluctant and lazy to take action.

In the book 'The Art of war' Cao Cao said " some win through speed, even if they are clumsy. We didn't act fast, we didn't close our boarders, we didn't set up a testing centre nor an isolation and quarantine centre. To show how our government failed in taking up to their responsibility, travellers who returned back from affected countries were giving just a form to fill answering questions like, do you have cough? Are you experiencing difficulty in breathing? e.t.c Instead of enforcing compulsory isolation for travellers coming into the country, they are been told to go home and observe self isolation. What was the government really thinking? Our leaders has failed us and they keep on failing. Our government couldn't adopt measures, they couldn't take decisions to bring Nigerians to a prefered or desirable end. We can see what is happening to us now. Corona Virus is living among us now, moving from person to person freely and gradually blowing into a community transmission. 

When it was obvious that Covid-19 is living among us, government decided to take action by initiating lockdown, closing schools, businesses, churches and mosques and restrictions to social gathering. Civil servants were told to stay at home. Markets were also closed leaving only those that sell essential commodities. Laws were put into place with punishment for those that will break the law.

The rich were able to observe the law, but the poor who run in millions  living from hand-to-mouth on daily job and hassle couldn't keep to the law. People were arrested and punished, cars were seized too. The actress Funke Akindele and the husband broke the law and they were punished. The late Chief of staff to President Buhari died(May his soul rest in peace) and government that established the law, failed to obey the law. There was no social distancing and more than 20 people attended the burial. All that came at the end was the presidential task force on Covid-19 apologizing to Nigerians for breaking the law without facing the punishment. In the book 'The Art of War' Cao Cao said "set up rules that are not to be broken, do not fail to punish any offenders". Du Mu also said "when it comes to establishing rules and regulations, everyone, high and low, should be treated alike. Mei Yaochen too said "make everyone equal under the law". Did our government make everyone equal under the law? They made us understand that all Nigerians are not equal under the law. Some are above the law. Our leaders who has been failing us, failed us once again.

Our government which decided to adopt a copy and paste approach towards fighting Covid-19, did well with that of lockdown but couldn't do well with that of Palliatives and sharing of cash to cushion the effect of Covid-19. Our government came up with sick ideas, that money will be transferred to people who have less than N5000 in their bank account and those who recharge not more than N100 airtime on their phone and also to the most vulnerable Nigerians. What is really wrong with our government? Next, the so called imported rice which government seized on the basis that is not good for our health  was the same they brought out to distribute to Nigerians. Who are we fooling? Is it not obvious that we are fooling ourselves as a country. 

There is this Arab saying; "if you have much, give of your wealth; if you have little, give of your heart. Thanks to the wealthy individuals among us who decided to come in when our government failed us. What happened showed us how we really love ourselves as Nigerians. Many were giving out online, those that have little did what they can do. In igbo region many gave back to their communities. God will really bless them immensely.

Prof. Charles Chukwuma Soludo( former CBN governor) wrote, "African government do not have credible demographic data to identify and target the most vulnerable". This should be a big challenge for our government to take the issue of national identification card registration serious, having a database of its citizens. So why should our government embark on something they know they cant do well? This is a big factor to consider. But to me, it is not really a big problem here in Nigeria. Why? If our politicians and power distribution company can actually locate every houses in Nigeria to share money and power bills respectively,  why is it not possible to locate Nigerians now? We have our senators, governors, house of rep members, state house assembly members,  local government chairmen,  ward chairmen, community chiefs and clan heads.

Why can't we think African? United States of America and Canada were able to share cash well to their citizens because they already have a credible and working system to locate their citizens. We know we don't have credible demographic data, so why can't we do it in our own way?  I believe when you adopt a process, you find a way to make sure it fits into your society and system. 

The big factor that we really need to consider  now is, if government can really afford to share cash to Nigerians. The simple and painful truth is that, we don't have that kind of money to give out. I know many will not agree with me, only a few will. But let's analyse it this way; Our population is +200million people. Our 2020 budget is about N10.33trn (which is a very poor budget to run our country) Our foreign reserve as at March 2020, is about $35.52bn (about N12.79trn). According to Prof. Charles Soludo in his recent article, 2% of bank accounts had balance N500,000 and above. We were also meant to understand that we have about 40million active bank account (BVN verified account). Calculating 2% of 40million bank account with more than N500,000 and above balance is 800,000 bank accounts. So out of +200m people, only 800,000 people have bank account balance of N500,000 and above(assuming no one operates more than one bank account) Going by the statistics, we can deduce that more than 100m people are poor and vulnerable. Now if government should find a way to locate and share cash to 100m people (which is like half the Nigeria population), lets assume N30,000(knowing fully well that Nigerians can't survive with N20,000/month in this pandemic) will be paid, which means that Nigerians will be living with N1000 daily. Multiplying N30,000 by 100m people, we will have N3trn. Now the question is, can Nigeria actually share cash of N3trn which is about 30% of its 2020 budget in one month to 100m people? Can Nigeria share cash of N3trn which is about 24% of our foreign reserve in one month? Remember government need to share this cash for about 2-3 months and we still have debts to service too.

Actually we could have been able to afford to share the cash but our leaders have looted our money leaving a small piece for the country.  The Abacha loot which should have been and utilized wisely was shared as traders money to buy vote by our leaders. We solely depend on oil and the little we had was wasted on non important projects and also on diversification without yielding any positive result. Our economy now is at standstill because crude is no longer selling with crashed price. So where is the money we are yielding from the supposed diversification?  Our government failed us in the past, they failed us in the present and they are about to fail us in the future.

THE FUTURE

The great writer Prof. Chinua Achebe once said, "there is nothing basically wrong with the Nigerian land or climate or water or air or anything else. The Nigerian problem is the unwillingness or inability of its leaders to rise to their responsibility, to the challenge of personal example which are the hallmarks of true leaderahip". Our leaders has failed us and they are about to fail us in the future. Our government is about not bringing a productive direction that will bring us to a prefered and desirable end.

Why will government continue locking down the country thereby shutting down our economy that is still struggling to wake up. Can Nigeria economy really survive in this lockdown? Master Sun once said that " those who are not thoroughly aware of the disadvantages in the use of arms cannot be thoroughly aware of the advantages in the use of arms. It is clear and obvious that fighting Covid-19 with lockdown is very expensive for Nigeria.  We need to start thinking outside the box, we need to start thinking African and device a means to survive since we know that our economy cannot carry the weight of lockdown. We need to adopt new strategies for our economy to survive. We need to re-open our economy. Crying out loud, we are crashing, our economy is really crashing and our foreign reserve is depleting month by month. Locking down the country is really crippling our economy more.

I learnt that you 've got to know where you are before you start. Our government  should have known where we are economically before starting the lockdown. With the lockdown,  thousands of SMEs will die off. Our IGR is down too, civil servants are at home receiving salaries without generating money for the government. Only a few are working. Talking of crude, we are not selling. All our crude are stored in tankers on the surface of the ocean.

The biggest mistake in finance is not knowing what you are doing, but not knowing where you are financially and what is up ahead. I doubt if our government knows what is up ahead. When president Trump is protesting about lifting the lockdown in order to open businesses and the economy, he knows what is up ahead. The post Covid-19 crises will be more harmful than the present crises itself. We solely depend on oil and oil price has crashed and no country is selling or buying crude at the moment.  Do we know what it means? It means all the countries producing oil in the world have crude oil right now stranded due to low demand. So what all the oil producing countries is doing now is to store all the crude in tankers and all the tankers are on the surface of the oceans. It cost about $30,000 daily to store them in tankers. Also storage on lands and pipeline for transportation are full too.

After the pandemic, when crude business will resume, there will be excess crude all over the world. How are we going to make sales to start making money which we will really need at that time to inject into our economy. With the present condition and how things are going, government won't be able to pay salaries in few months to come.

We really need to adopt a new strategy that will allow our businesses to function while we fight Covid-19. Just like Hon. Chris Azubogu said in an interview, we need to adopt Michael Okpala development strategy that saw the Eastern region emerge as one of the fastest growing economies in the 60s. Place emphasis on agricultural value chain. Activate research and development. Encourage our health scientist in going into research. Our specialists who are good at herbs and roots can be encouraged too to go into research just like what happened in Madagascar. At the  moment,  government can actually help regulate prices of agricultural products by going down to the interior areas where farm produce comes from, buy those products directly from farmers and transporting it to different parts of the country. Farmers are complaining of difficulties accessing their farm during this lockdown even though they are allowed to move, but there is limited means of transport this period and the cost of transporting products from state to state has increased.  So when the farm produce are bought by the government and transported, hiking the price of  farm produce  by individuals will be regulated. Nigerians will be able to buy goods at a good and cheap rate. Farmers will also find it easier to start farming without discouragement. 

In fighting the Covid-19, we can adopt strategies like decentralization of test centres to enable massive testing. NCDC can embark on massive testing. Government can also adopt strategy like making wearing of face masks in public mandatory. Government can disinfect public places, roads and all the open markets on daily basis. Encourage regular washing of hands with antiseptic soap, encourage social distancing, suspend social gathering, discourage interstate movements and encouraging movement of goods with logistics companies from state to state. Encouraging manufacturing and production of face masks, hand sanitizers and gloves. Can we picture how many job opportunities that government will create in the midst of the pandemic. Imaging having over 200m people wearing masks and gloves and using hand sanitizers, all made in Nigeria. Imagine logistics companies employing more Nigerians. Still at the end, government will still generate more money through taxes.

Richard Templar wrote in his book 'The Rules of Wealth'; "As long as more is coming in than is going out, you are getting the basics right. If more is going out than coming in, you need to take swift and effective action to redress the situation. With these strategies, the amount of money that will be spent fighting Covid-19 will be less when compared to the money we will be generating when our economy is open.

I plead with our government not to fail us in the future. I urge the government to go back to the drawing board,  employ quality and capable hands , re-think, re-strategize and lift the lockdown immediately in order to open our economy.  I believe that state government can actually do the same. 

I appreciate all the health workers at the frontline making sure that Nigerians survives this pandemic. I pray that the soul's of the departed in this pandemic rest in peace. Thank you and God bless Nigeria.


Ogbuka Ifeanyichukwu 

Pan-Africanist, politician, business & idea developer.

E-mail: mrvicbenson91@gmail.com

April 29, 2020.

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